Does Starlink Mean the End of Econet?

Last week, the big news was that Starlink officially launched in Zimbabwe, and many people have suggested that this could be a death blow for Econet Wireless Zimbabwe (EWZ).

Is this the case?

To assess this, we need to look at how much revenue EWZ generates from data and how much of that is going to fall away because of Starlink.

Based on a visual from our archives, Econet’s Mobile Network revenue from data and internet services was about 33% in 2023.

While data revenues are essential, this shows that EWZ’s does not solely depend on data.

In fact, the 2023 numbers above exclude revenue from EcoCash, which has now been pulled back into EWZ.

If we factor in Ecocash revenues, then in 2023, the revenue share from data would have been about 27% of the total.

So, a drop in data revenues for EWZ probably wouldn’t kill off its business. I actually think that even with Starlink, data revenue for EWZ could increase.

Compared to other leading telcos in the region, EWZ’s percentage of revenue from data is on the low side, indicating room for growth and we have already seen signs of this happening.

In EWZ's most recent quarter (March-May), data revenue increased to 42% of the mobile network business revenue compared to 33% in the previous year.

From EWZ’s Q1 Update

So, while Starlink will eat into EWZ revenue streams, I think there is sufficient growth in the market for EWZs to maintain healthy data revenue.

What will also help are their new offerings, like the SmartBiz, which fits most users' needs with packages starting at $45 for unlimited data.

In addition, Starlink is not really a direct replacement for mobile data.

Sure, you can carry around the Stalink Mini, but people tend only to take such measures if the alternative is ridiculously priced.

As we have already seen, Econet’s data prices will come down, and the cost-benefit analysis of buying data versus carrying a Starlink will likely tip in favour of buying data.

Another defensive mechanism EWZ can take is bundling data with other services, which they are testing out.

As Techzim reports, this weekend Econet sent out the following message to certain customers:

Dear Customer. You have been selected to test our new bundle. Look out for a special offer notification from 289. Your participation means a lot to us

The offers sent out included unlimited data, minutes, and text, as shown in the table below.

As reported by TechZim

Econet is clearly testing the ideal price point for an unlimited data bundle.

I think there would probably be a huge uptake at the price point below $25, and even at $30, there would be demand, especially among corporates.

Whether bundles at this price point would be profitable enough for EWZ remains to be seen, but we do know that when EWZ was at its best in 2014, the monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) was $10.36.

From Econet Wireless Zimbabwe 2014 Annual Report

Now, whilst not the most scientific approach, if peak EWZ’s monthly APRU was about $10, it seems they could probably make it work by charging a subset of customers $30 per month for unlimited data and a large chunk of text and minutes.

This is also more in line with global trends where a monthly charge is levied for unlimited text, talk and data.

EWZ still has several cards it can play to limit the impact of Starlink.

The business within the Econet Wireless Global group that may feel more of the impact of Starlink is Liquid Intelligent Technologies, more commonly just known as Liquid.

Liquid is in the internet infrastructure business and essentially “brings in” about 80% of the internet into the country.

Now that Starlink will be eating into that market share and forcing prices down, there will certainly be a hit.

We will need to unpack how much of a hit in another post in which we look through their financial statements, so be on the lookout for that.

In closing, Starlink will not be the end of Econet Wireless Zimbabwe.

In fact, the biggest risk I see for EWZ is not Starlink but companies like Innbucks, which are eating into the Mobile Money business, which is where the real growth opportunity lies.

This is another topic we are to cover soon.

Thanks for reading. Let me know what you think!

PS: I am working with public information, so my analysis could be wrong or missing something.